Recent high-profile scandals and political upheavals have cast into doubt the longevity of the House of Windsor, and brought new fire to the debate as to whether Britain will continue to have a monarch by 2030.
Queen Elizabeth II is one of the most recognisable individuals in the world and, for the most part, viewed favourably. The British public’s support for the monarchy has remained remarkably buoyant since polls began, and hit a record high level of 80% in 2012 following the Diamond Jubilee and London Olympics.
However in her 2019 Christmas speech, the longest-reigning monarch in British history admitted that the outgoing year had “felt quite bumpy”. The House of Windsor was, and still is, reeling from Virginia Roberts’ “highly credible” claims that she was used for sex by Prince Andrew, as a teenager. The House of Windsor was rocked again shortly after the speech aired, as Prince Harry publicly announced that he and his wife wished to “step back” from frontline royal duties.
When the Queen dies, pervasive media coverage and unprecedented displays of mourning will follow. Some of these are already meticulously planned. In conversation with royal expert Anna Whitelock, Russell Brand imagines the wider cultural and socio-political implications, noting that the “national identity” and “global brand of Britain” and important aspects of infrastructure (including the national anthem) will all need to be rewritten, along with the future of the monarchy itself.
Whitelock predicts that the months between the Queen’s death and her successor’s coronation will feel “precarious … for the monarchy”. This is due to the huge cost and inevitable debates between pro- and anti-royalists. And crucially, public faith in the institution is entwined with the Queen and her world-famous commitment to the role. A recent poll revealed the Queen is widely regarded as “dedicated” and “hard working”, and the majority of people believe abolishing the monarchy would harm Britain’s economy and global reputation.
According to recent research countries with royal rule tend to be more stable economically, and their citizens benefit from higher living standards as a result. The study also points to the stabilising “psychological mechanism” of having a higher authority than the government, for political leaders and subjects alike. The Queen could hold the elected government to account and as a resolutely impartial head of state, has been called a “unifying symbol”.
Yet the majority of those polled also want the next monarch to “connect more with the British public”, and be “more progressive” than the Queen has been. This is increasingly important, as the population composition of Britain gradually changes from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. By 2031 minority ethnicities could make up around 15 per cent of the growing UK population, up from 12 per cent in 2011. This will almost certainly weaken monarchical support; Londoners, already the most diverse population segment in the UK, are 11 per cent less likely to support keeping the institution than the national average.
Changes in Britain’s population economic stability, particularly post-Brexit, will also inform future debates around the Crown’s role and relevance. To a generation of younger people who are already less likely to support the monarchy and forced by market conditions to rent rather than buy, it may be even harder to appreciate the benefits of having billionaire heads of state. They are also less supportive of royal impartiality; one poll suggests two thirds of younger people wanted the Queen to share her views on Brexit.
Prince William is the public’s preferred candidate to succeed the Queen, bypassing his father. Yet William’s remarkably direct criticism of the lack of diversity in the film industry at the 2020 Bafta awards was met with a mixture of support and criticism. For many, his “woke” credentials were subtly undermined by pervasive media reports of his family’s incompatibility with the black, American feminist who initially looked set to have a modernising and lasting impact on the House of Windsor.
During this “bumpy” period we have seen the Windsors variously depicted as symbolic of modern Britain, and an institution that is patently incapable of change. The future of the United Kingdom, Commonwealth and the rest of the world will hinge upon the decisions made when the sceptre inevitably passes to the next generation. I predict that the decades ahead will feel even bumpier still. And after all, the Queen will not be there to steady us.
