Prediction special: key trends emerging from the global crisis
People often say that we learn who we really are in times of crisis.
The world has been gradually increasing in population size, alongside climate chaos, condensed urbanisation and mass consumerism. The Covid-19 pandemic has forced us all to press pause. In a few short months, the situation has already given rise to a resurgence of primal responses that we must acknowledge, new value systems for health and happiness and, above all, a dramatic and urgent reprioritisation of what really matters.
As the tone of media coverage shifts from pessimism to outright scaremongering, the researchers at Predictedit have fortunately taken a more balanced approach. Below they identify some of the key changes the virus might bring to bear on society based on emerging technologies, research, insights and trends.
Here’s what they believe will, could or should emerge from this crisis:
The new boom
With a backdrop of fear stoking the unconscious human urge to procreate, and working from home allowing ample opportunity for it, we predict that the world will see a corona-baby boom in the next two years. Proximity-based dating apps are already reporting a spike in activity, as some issue health warnings.
(Self) Love
On the flipside, we foresee increased interest in self-pleasure devices and toys, as single people take pause on traditional forms of dating and long-distance couples are kept apart by quarantine. This coming boom was already widely noted as the technology becomes increasingly sophisticated and socially accepted. We also predict a short-term boost for porn streaming and live cam sites during this period of self-isolation — and (let’s be real) while many people “work” from home.
In with the old
Mirroring the effects of the AIDS epidemic on the elderly gay community living today, there is a coming wave of isolated elderly people who will lose friends, loved ones and crucial support networks to the virus. We optimistically predict that this will encourage a new wave of intergenerational volunteering, benefitting the most vulnerable members of our society. We urge you all to check in with your local Age UK, Age International or Salvation Army for volunteering opportunities.
WFH
Virtually all of the world’s top companies have urged their employees to WFH (work from home). With many treating this as a test of productivity and future working models, we will likely see flexible working patterns (and locations) emerge as the norm, even after the virus has calmed down. Video-conferencing and live-streaming apps have boomed in popularity in recent weeks. We also predict that the debate over the limitations of what we should (and should not) do remotely will intensify, as workers seek to redefine their rights in the face of agricultural drones, app-based medical appointments and video-policing.
Changing lanes
This crisis has brought unprecedented disruptions to virtually all job sectors and working lives. The urgent need to improvise and problem-solve has led many people to reconsider their jobs, and what they would ideally change. When everything (eventually) settles down, this could result in a noticeable spike in turnover. Online education provider FutureLearn is already publicising its outbreak-themed and upskilling course offer.
Cleaning regimes
Heightened standards of cleanliness and sanitisation will be culturally accepted, and perhaps even legally enforceable. We predict changes to health and safety legislation, food hygiene standards, and social media shaming of companies (and individuals) who fall below these newly-accepted baselines — and rewards for companies who actively and creatively respond. On a more immediate level, jobs for cleaners, handymen and carpenters will increase exponentially.
Talk it out
We will have all noticed that people are talking openly about their virus-related fears to loved ones, colleagues and even strangers. Amidst global panic and media saturation, researchers are already alerting us to the dangers of “emotional contagion”. We anticipate this trend of sharing feelings will continue long after this intense period is over, as people begin to unpack and express their experiences of it (either in therapy, through counselling or by offloading socially).
Please don’t grow!
In these uncertain economic times, hopes for a return to normality and steadiness far outweigh calls for growth (see also: LSN on “post-growth” society). Calls for environmentally sustainable manufacturing practices intersected this debate when remarkable NASA photos showed the air literally clearing over China as production halted. This will give rise to fresh questions about how (much) we consume globally. Leading futurologist Li Edelkoort hopes that, post-virus, the world “will start up again with new rules and regulations”, with smaller-scale outputs and “cottage industries” flourishing.
Back to basics
As the virus has interrupted key manufacture-and-supply chains the world over, expect to see fewer products and consumer choices than we have grown used to. By virtue of necessity, Edelkoort also predicts that tastes will shift towards minimalism, in terms of volume as well as aesthetic, and we will see a different value system whereby “manual labour is cherished above everything else”. NPD have already report a recent rise in sales of art and drawing related materials; expect to see this increased appreciation for making reflected in group-based creative classes, such as pottery and sewing, in years to come. Pared-back colour palettes (from botanical dyes) and a movement away from articial food flavours could also follow.
No man is an island
The virus is spread by human-to-human contact, making socialisation problematic for the time being. Gone unchecked, feelings of isolation and disenfranchisement can be easily stoked into tribalism. This is already suggested globally by border closures, rises in racially-motivated crimes and in the nationalistic language being employed by world leaders (even neutral ones). This calls for all of us to be aware of racism and xenophobia, call it out where we see it, share balanced news articles — and support communities most at risk of being ghettoised in future days, months and even years.
(Not) leaving on a jetplane
As work-related travel has been discouraged and disrupted by the virus, and with the world already seeing flight-shaming beforehand, travel will become a luxury or a necessity, with little in between. We predict increased demand for luxe and environmentally sustainable travel packages. On the flipside, with the virus bringing about a heightened awareness of health and wellbeing, medical travel could become commonplace, as people seek to investigate new treatments and scour the world for medical developments; in the UK for instance, the NHS recently partnered with Google to guide people to finding safe medical advice online.
Small-scale socialising
One key anti-viral measure has been “social distancing”. We predict that venues where people congregate such as pubs, libraries (and perhaps even churches), will come up with new ways to accommodate smaller-scale social activities in future. NPD points out that solo eating was already becoming an increasingly popular (and profitable) enterprise; this could be taken one step further by rethinking interiors (such as adding more clustered and counter-style seating), and creating activities for individuals or small groups (Laine Pub Company already offer punters VR pods, arcade games, painting classes and shuffleboard activities).
Connecting remotely
In a similar vein, heritage social clubs could be set up and conducted virtually. Book clubs, sewing classes and even bridge games could move to digital platforms, allowing connection with likeminded others from the comfort of one’s own home.
Retouching
We could see a resurgence of touch-based movement classes and workout options, as people seek to physically reconnect after months of social distancing. Giving firm favourites such as yoga and Pilates innovative twists to include partner work, or rediscovering ancient practices such as Butoh, would aim specifically at reintroducing touch and connection to our daily lives.
Resourceful recipes
The coronavirus could well bring to bear profound changes on the food supply and production chain as we know it. On a smaller scale, we are likely to see the rise of resourceful recipes, “larder living” and batch cooking, which bring together cupboard, frozen and fresh ingredients (particularly if the latter gets harder to come by) in creative ways. As consumers turn away from eating out, sales of home appliances and storage solutions will see a short-to-medium-term bump.
Natural beauty
Many people, especially those with sensitive skin, are struggling with increased use of harsh chemical-based hand sanitizers and cleaning products. We predict that a new generation of “natural” beauty brands and product lines will emerge, using kinder, botanical ingredients. This builds on growing trends predicted by several of our favourite cultural seers including bio-positivity, “skintellectuals” and mindful beauty. Brands like Lucky Cloud Skincare and ethical comparison sites have been leading this cause already.
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