Isolation and innovation: ten big ways our world is changing
The first half of 2020 has brought changes to many engrained behaviours and ways of life, which would have been previously unthinkable. As some gently and tentatively return, others are fading away forever.
At the time of writing, lockdown and distancing measures remain in place for most countries. The novel coronavirus continues to dominate news headlines, political discourse and the collective imagination, globally. Initial hopes that things would ‘back to normal’, and that we all could return to daily life before the pandemic, are gradually fading. Logically, we must therefore look to the next normal.
It is worth noting that times of crisis accelerate emerging trends, rather than derail them. Below are ten mega-trends that are emerging from the global pandemic, based on weak signals and behaviour shifts appearing across sectors. Taken together, they build a picture of what daily life might look like going forward.
Before we begin, there are eight widely accepted changes which underpin the trends…
Digi-physical interaction will become a more regular facet of people’s day-to-day. People’s familiarly with the tools keeping us connected throughout the crisis will result in working from home (WFH) becoming increasingly common, as will exercising outside of gyms and livestreamed fitness classes from home. Virtual learning platforms will sit among traditional schools, colleges and universities as viable alternatives.
We are on the cusp of a worldwide, post-virus recession. The global economy and international trade has been upended. There have been widespread redundancies, furloughs and salary reductions. This is deeply concerning, not least because 60% of all goods are sold to the public.
Volatile markets and shifting sands will mean that organisations will achieve success through their adaptability and leanness. Brands and companies will need to respond quickly to insight and foresight, and adapt their operations accordingly. Many companies will permanently alter aspects of their business, operations and planning as a result. Flexibility as a theme will also influence architecture, banking and working patterns.
We will see changes in where people invest their time, energy and money. Many people are already reconsidering their topmost priorities, and making conscious changes in how they live, work, consume and eat. We will all experience a newfound appreciation for many of the liberties and activities that we took for granted before the crisis.
Consumer behaviour will be radically changed post-crisis. Supply chains are at their lowest levels for five years, and many household name brands are already reporting they will close permanently. Consumers will therefore have less choice, and many shoppers will already be on a tighter budget due to the economic slowdown. The most likely outcome is that a more thoughtful, considered approach to purchasing and investment will emerge.
Time will become a precious, protected commodity. The virus has forced many people to work from home — offering increased free and family time, and a newfound appreciation for downtime. Products and services that reduce stress (and cut corners to maximise time) stand to profit. Apps and devices that improve sleep, convenience cookers, and stress-related and antiaging beauty products are already seeing boosted sales.
In the changed consumer landscape, people will expect products and services that add value to their lives, delivered by swift, frictionless service. From the boardroom to frontline staff, empathy with the customer will need to be embedded across all operations and decisions like never before. By extension, seamlessness will become a leading design aesthetic, prompting developments in AR, and disappearing bevels on devices.
Our collective impact on the environment is clear and undeniable. We will have all seen the miraculous images of cleaner air and bodies of water. Mother Nature is telling us to change our ways. Will we listen?
And now, the good stuff…
Trend #1: Flux Architecture
The changing needs of businesses, workers and consumers will require creative responses, and changeable interiors that can adapt for many uses. We see this in the solo eating trend, which was already gaining traction before the pandemic. With the shockwaves of social distancing accelerating this trend, expect to see interiors that empower solo dining experiences. Think counter-style or clustered seating, power adaptors, tables that can be booked via apps, and friendly staff.
Demand will increase for co-working and hot-desking spaces as a result of Work from Home (WFH) culture, and people taking on additional side projects. These studios could be fitted out with design features and modular furniture that enable the interiors to become more fluid, transforming into meeting rooms, breakout areas and workspaces. They can also have much-needed social value, like Fabric Floor Brixton and Mission Kitchen.
This will also influence bricks-and-mortar retailers, who will have a surplus of out-of-season stock when they reopen. This will require thoughtful merchandising and fluid interiors, to give space to markdown areas and promotional events to attract shoppers. Concept department stores like Neighborhood Goods, who keep overheads down by renting capsule spaces to multiple brands and designers, stand to increase their growing market share. This could also be a cost-effective answer to filling the large spaces vacated by the many retailers who struggle to survive the closure period. Another is to host pop-up events and community-engaging “activations” (see Rosedale shopping mall, and the industry-leading work of b8ta).
Flat-pack buildings are cheaper and simple to construct, so could help solve the logistical difficulties social distancing poses to the construction sector, and seem to be making a comeback. These would meet increased demand for housing for the many people will decide to change their living situations when the crisis lifts.
Trend #2: Catchment If You Can
We are seeing increased interest in pedestrianism and investment in local suppliers, partly out of necessity. But this could also indicate renewed appreciation for the convenience and benefits of using local shops and doorstep delivery services. Dr Devon Powers hypothesizes that Amazon’s recent explosion in popularity actually reflects this desire. To quote travel industry expert Rafat Ali, this will potentially give rise to “radical localism”; renewed appreciation of our localities, nearby businesses and the regions we live in.
Particularly in the short term, international travel will be subject to increased scrutiny and regulation. Until a vaccine is found, Ali casts doubt on suggested solutions such as passports containing antibody information, mainly because they rely on coordination and good faith between travel providers and countries. Ali predicts that local tourism will be the logical next step in travel, beginning with accommodation that is within driving distance and can be cleaned on arrival (such as professional Airbnbs). Ali points to China as an example, where people are going out to local tourism sites now that lockdown is easing. Skift recently compared the countries that stand to profit (or suffer) most from relying solely on domestic tourism. Meanwhile, as we predicted previously, international travel will be reserved for important business reasons, medical procedures and family emergencies.
Before the crisis, consumers motivated by environmental concerns were already placing greater currency in food takeaways with limited catchments areas. Doorstep-delivery meal kits and produce boxes are seeing a generous uptick that could also persist. As quarantine is phased out, we might also see a rise in allotment culture, as people yearn for locally-sourced and greener food options.
There are added benefits to thinking globally, and acting locally. Balanced Beauty, a beauty company due to launch later this year, source their ingredients locally wherever possible. Despite coronavirus interrupting manufacture and supply models worldwide, their operations could continue with relatively fewer interruptions. Similarly, Business of Fashion predicts that “slow fashion” brands are poised to recover more quickly from the crisis than their non-sustainable counterparts, thanks to shorter supply chains and reputations for transparency.
Trend #3: Visible transparency
Following an intensely uncertain time, consumers will value (and demand) openness and authenticity in how brands communicate and operate. This will drive consumer spending, and companies will be judged on how ‘transparent’ they are perceived to be.
Fashion manufacturers and supply chains were already under the microscope; the pandemic has shed new light on the fragility and inequality of the current system, with many garment-producing communities devastated by cancelled orders.
Retailer Everlane has faced criticism for its staffing policies during the pandemic, but the brand was an early adopter of “radical transparency”, best seen in its pricing breakdowns of what a garment cost to produce, ship and sell. Adidas’ recent move to sourcing sustainable cotton, and H&M’s decision to identify its suppliers on its product pages, are in line with this thinking and will appeal to the growing customer base that appreciates knowing where their clothes come from.
Food supply chains, ingredient sources and packaging clarity will be under closer scrutiny than before. People will want to be able to say with confidence what they are ingesting, how it benefits them and where it came from. Investments in AI and apps that help consumers pinpoint this information are already seeing increased demand, such as Spoon Guru and Foodchain. This is also leading to urgent calls for food packaging to be much clearer and more informative.
Recent high-profile examples indicate that public trust is an enduring concern in big tech, too. The historic joint statement from Twitter, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple and Google on coronavirus-related fake news is one recent example of companies leaning into their shared blind spots. Google partnered with the UK’s National Health Service on a similar project to fight unverified medical information spreading online. Whatsapp also recently announced a new feature that flags any message that has been forwarded multiple times.
Trend #4: Collaboration culture
Collaboration is nothing new, having been mainstay of many companies’ operations and marketing strategies since the invention of branding. But the virus has temporarily disrupted the top-down and linear approaches favoured traditionally by many companies, giving fresh urgency to collaboration culture. In addition to brands collaborating on new product lines, Evan Rosen notes that this is leading to both “cross-sector collaboration” and, interestingly, “cross-organizational” as organisations need “everybody thinking and contributing” at every level, in the current climate.
Cross-organizational collaboration
Recent research has underscored that an organisation’s level of diversity correlates with its financial success. During times of crisis, inclusive workforces are best at predicting the impact decisions will have on customer bases, which are often diverse themselves. Within organisations, apps such as Pol.is are helping colleagues with diverse working and communication styles work more effectively together. Pol.is has even been used to solve disputes between law and policymakers in Taiwan.
In the face of a recession, companies across looking sectors have dramatically reduced their projected outputs, and staffing levels. In lieu of internal promotion and reward culture, companies should begin to put even greater emphasis on staff morale, balanced leadership models, and empowering their “horizontal leaders” (naturally gifted influencers, who work across silos and engage peers to improve the customer experience).
Cross-sector collaboration
High-profile collaborative projects are showing companies’ willingness to work across sectors to reach new audiences, and tap into their civic potential. One notable example is Adidas (whose ubiquitous “X” sneaker collaborations epitomise collab culture) teaming up with Google and EA on wearable workout tech that links to in-game rewards.
In scientific research, labs are being celebrated for sharing information to solve problems, rather than siloing knowledge. To aid scientists investigating coronavirus, IBM has developed open tools and AI software to correlate data between hospitals with different record-keeping systems. After generations of closed labs, this could signal a wider change in the industry. As reported by Stanford before the crisis, the lead scientist of the Free Genes Project noted that they were sharing “access to tools and infrastructure” because “the best use of the collection is probably the one we haven’t thought of yet.”
A key current example is the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker App developed by King’s College London, together with the UK’s National Health Service and a healthcare start-up. Sharing expertise and networks contributed to the app’s success, which reported more than 1.5 million downloads upon its release.
Trend #5: Less is More
The pandemic is bringing about seismic shifts in the fashion and retail sectors. The seasonal fashion cycle has been interrupted, with experts estimating that we will see summer clothing drop in July this year (much later than usual). This will naturally bring to bear less consumer choice, and calls for urgent creative problem-solving and contingency plans.
The system of pre-season collections and regular sales has led to a baseline of overabundance. While it is perhaps unwise to call anything a “silver lining” during a global health crisis, the current slowdown will be welcome news to many who feel that the fashion should slow down and take a more sustainable approach. This includes some of the most famous names in the industry. At May 2019’s Frieze Art and Fashion Summit, Alix Browne of Helmut Lang lamented the fashion world’s “addiction to newness” and the pervasive throwaway culture this incites.
US Vogue editor Anna Wintour recently predicted that the pandemic will precipitate a huge “value” shift, with the ‘what’s new, what’s next?’ mindset receding. This will allow the industry “to slow down and enjoy it much more”. Wintour also believes we will place “more emphasis” on sustainability, luxury, creativity and craft, with less focus on fashion shows and seasonal drops. Trend forecaster Li Edelkoort similarly predicts a new value system, where “manual labour is cherished above everything else”.
At all levels of the fashion ecosystem, several labels are taking a more sustainable approach to making. In Bethany Williams’ most recent collection, the London-based designer and campaigner collaborated with Adidas and Stuffstr on a pair of upcycled sneakers. Williams is often featured in the press for her activism and sustainable design practices, which are an integral part of her work. Fashion house McQueen is donating leftover fabric to Central Saint Martins students, with creative director Sarah Burton adding that she was happy to see it saved and “properly used”.
Designers across the board are facing the triple threat of unsold stock, excess material and overheads such as studio rent. Many early-career and environmentally-conscious designers may hold a slight advantage, as they have shorter supply chains and smaller operations. Yet sobering statistics reported by the Guardian predict that “35% of young and upcoming designers [are] looking as if they will not be able to continue their businesses past the summer”. In many ways, their survival depends on a more thoughtful consumer mindset emerging after the pandemic.
By the same token, the popularity of nostalgia is increasing across sectors during this uncertain time, as investors become more risk averse and consumer tastes shift toward the past, comfort and familiarity. Disney+ is riding this wave; its back catalogue and its penchant for rebooting old hits appeal to deliberately wide generations of fans. Earlier this year, editors lamenting the high-profile struggles of lifestyle retailer Laura Ashley mused that it could have lived longer by delving into its own back catalogue. With people at home, retro video games are also seeing a revival in popularity. Nostalgia and vintage were already big business before the crisis, and all points indicate to this trend continuing apace.
Trend #6: Well and Good
The threat of Covid-19 is bringing health to the forefront of many people’s minds. With mounting evidence that patients who suffered the worst coronavirus symptoms had poor gut health and inactive lifestyles, and news that high-salt diets can suppress immunity, we predict that health will continue to be a higher priority for everyone. Will we see more inclusive definitions of fitness, diet and wellbeing emerge to meet the demand?
In theory, workout from home culture democratizes fitness, as social media boot camps and physical movement classes are open to everyone with reliable internet access. However, Instagram livestreams or YouTube videos do not allow instructors to correct form and technique, and often presuppose participants’ skill level, fitness and body type. Body-positive, plus-size-inclusive and all-level workouts are emerging to meet the need. Instructors with come-as-you-are approaches are attracting new audiences, for instance Yoga for Everyone, Ashley Graham and Jessamyn Stanley.
With the EU’s Farm to Fork campaign naming childhood nutrition and activity as primary focuses, wellbeing services aimed at families will likely increase their growing market share. The recent success of Joe Wicks’ free children’s fitness classes (which reached 15 million viewers in the first week alone) indicates the market potential. Several London gyms now comprise fresh crèches that offer activities and playgrounds to keep kids active and engaged, while their parents workout.
Demand for foods with functional or preventative health benefits has recently seen “staggering growth” across the board. Experts in the industry predict that this is part a longer-term shift in demand for organic and sustainable foods. Spoon Guru has tapped into this trend by modifying their allergen-spotting technology to also highlight products with immuno-boosting properties.
The Partnership for a Healthier America (PHA) recently joined forces with companies to revolutionise the marketplace of childhood nutrition, by partnering with leading names in the sector. This includes Tiny Organics, who make healthy ready meals for babies, and promote education around flavours, textures and enjoyment of food from early years through their influential “First 100 Flavours” campaign.
Interest in what you are putting on your body is also increasing. Natural beauty is a continuously growing trend, witnessed in higher demand for plant-based fragrances such as lavender, and ethically sourced ingredients such as Kiehl’s using quinoa husk, Upcircle repurposing coffee grounds as body scrubs and the Body Shop salvaging misshapen bananas for hair conditioner. Vogue recently spotlighted natural skincare, featuring products with heritage ingredients like beeswax, vegetables, flowers and herbs.
Trend #7: Mental Wealth
The world is witnessing a rapid reprioritisation of mental health, as people facing a universal threat find ways to discuss and share their individual experience of it. International research indicates that the mental health consequences of the virus and lockdown will last longer, and peak later, than the actual pandemic. This corresponds with a recent report suggesting that people isolating in the UK are most concerned about the stability of the future and their immediate mental wellbeing, above all other fears.
To cope with anxiety in quarantine and isolation, people are turning to alternative and virtual methods. In the US, Android users spent over 1.5 million hours on the top three mindfulness apps in the last week of March; the Headspace app alone saw seventeen times more users completing its stress meditation. TikTok has emerged as the platform of choice for young people to express and document their personal struggles. Their #recovery hashtag connects people at all stages of recovery from mental breakdowns and i-D reports that it was being widely-adopted, just as the crisis took hold.
The beauty sector is offering its own take on intervention and prevention of anxiety, with a new generation of beauty brands using wellbeing to promote their offer. Kiehl’s have partnered with New York meditation studio MNDFL on an Instagram Live series; they now stream regular “mask meditations”, with the instructor wearing one of their facemasks. In terms of product innovation, Balanced Beauty is leading the charge, with serums that specifically combat hormonal skin conditions. Stress-related products and rituals are also dominating Vogue’s beauty pages.
Stress prevention mechanisms can also benefit children in their early years of development. The global pandemic has accelerated development of an app for children that promotes focus and calm, through a series of digestible, daily activities (narrated by campaigner Stephen Fry). In the UK, mental health experts concluded that the best way to process emotions (and thereby cope with the isolating effects of the lockdown) is through play, and have published urgent guidance to schools, families and the government to prioritise creativity and play when lockdown eases.
Although customers will want to see organisations taking carefully chosen and decisive action, they will equally appreciate feeling valued and heard. At a time when people are generally more open to sharing experiences, companies have an unprecedented opportunity to gather anecdotal and ethnographic data, which they would be wise to observe and act upon.
Trend #8: All the Small Things
Smaller-scale organisations and businesses tend to be more agile, adaptable and able to make changes at scale, by virtue of their size. This is no guarantee of survival; we have seen catastrophic predictions from smaller art galleries in France, regional museums and football clubs in the UK, and minor league baseball teams in the US. However we are seeing reassuring signs of small- and mid-size organisations across sectors successfully flexing their operations, in the hopes of weathering the storm.
Smaller and regional colleges (with fewer than 1000 students) account for 40% of the education market in the US, though the lion’s share of students matriculate at bigger institutions. The smaller institutions that are able to flex up their academic offerings stand to benefit from the rising demand for flexible, non-degree programs and gap year models, amidst the near-L-shaped collapse in demand for traditional qualifications.
Even before the crisis, art gallerist Candice Madey observed the “tremendous” advantage of smaller galleries, which “are nimbler and more adept at mounting complex projects on tight budgets than the mega-galleries, because these invaluable skills tend to get buried at the corporate level”. Madey also notes that “while executing new ventures cost money, ideas are free”. This is resonating across sectors.
Trend #9: New Ecologies
Initially the pandemic ignited concerns over food supply chains and scarcity of groceries, while immuno-boosting foods have become a topmost food consumer priority. Against the backdrop of climate crisis, the conversation for many has shifted from we should be eating now, to what we will be eating on a drier, warmer planet.
At the 2019 Aspen Ideas Festival, Uma Valeti spoke about his company’s mission to retain the choice of eating meat in a hotter and more crowded world, by producing meat directly grown from animal cells. Memphis Meats’ main challenge so far has been convincing investors, the industry and, crucially, the public. Given that their process decreases the chance for contamination from bacteria due to poor handling or from animal organs, and that animal-to-human transmission of coronavirus has been widely reported, we will likely see currency in cultured meat rise in future, with companies like Memphis Meats and Israeli start-up Aleph Farms succeeding.
Deserts are often written off as wastelands, but doing so ignores their rich ecosystems, and by extension indications of how humans might survive in low-water conditions. Cara Giaimo’s recent report into companies building solar panels in deserts without considering the existing plant communities, alongside recent research by Liverpool John Moores University’s Astro-Ecology group to conserve endangered animals in Africa combining “citizen science” and AI, both speak to this growing appreciation for life within dry and demanding conditions.
This can even be taken to research into ecosystems on other planets. Space is an enduring source of fascination and, as the global picture here gets bleaker, people continue to look to space for a diversion — and as a mirror for life on our home planet. Very recent reports from NASA regarding literal “life on Mars” (via Stanford), and lettuce grown in space that is “safe to eat” show a concern for alternative ecologies — or a place to start afresh in the future?
Trend #10: Community 2.0
Community can be broadly described as the act of connecting with local or likeminded people, usually for a good cause or social benefit. The pandemic has disrupted the notion of community in major ways, but we are also seeing new definitions of the term emerge, as people by necessity create connections which go beyond bricks-and-mortar.
Many leading retail experts agree that the future for the sector lies in creating and engaging a community, beyond the four walls of a store. Early adopters of this strategy have succeeded in the crisis. For instance, athleisurewear retailer lululemon’s revenue and stock profile have increased thanks to strong online business, which they partly attribute to their popular workout from home classes and increased social media engagement. With its online shop and virtual learning offer, NYC-based The Alchemist’s Kitchen is providing a lifeline and plant-based wellbeing service for its local community, and keeping sales ticking over, during the crisis.
While their buildings are closed, numerous museums and galleries are doing their best to create meaningful engagement in creative ways. New York arts space Fort Knox, famous for its installation work, released their latest exhibition as a multi-sensory “digital drop” including a stop-motion video and a Spotify playlist. In Spain, a design studio launched “Postcrisis”, an exhibition of artworks and installations spread across several sites that can be toured by the local community, while safely maintaining social distance.
Before the current crisis, Diane Drubay asserted that museums, as civic spaces, should focus equally on care for objects, and visitors. The most successful museums will prioritise dialogue with their visitors, and offer interpretation labels, displays and events hyper-relevant to them. Drubay urged all museums to undertake an immediate “care audit” that “would focus on the following areas: staff, policy, community, services, and the building”. The care audit will be critical going forward, as museums need more than ever to appear safe, relevant and necessary, in order to rebuild visitor confidence and justify their funding. Drubay’s audit could also be applied to other sectors, as the world begins to move forward, and into the next normal.
